Mexican exports tariffs to the United States will increase on August 1, as announced by President Donald Trump. This measure could worsen Mexico’s economic outlook and disrupt regional supply chains.
Mexico faces unprecedented tariff hike
The new adjustment will raise the average weighted tariff from 11.9% to 13.7% for Mexican products sent to the U.S. According to Banamex’s Daily Economic Report No. 1633, this increase represents a blow to logistical and operational efficiency.
Although the USMCA will continue to offer exemptions for certain products, stricter rules of origin will particularly affect sectors such as auto parts, light vehicles, and steel.
Mexico is not the only country impacted. Brazil, Canada, Thailand, Vietnam, and others will also face tariff barriers. The U.S. global average tariff is expected to rise to 14.7%, based on Banamex estimates and official U.S. data.
Mexican government opens urgent negotiations with U.S.
President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration confirmed it has begun talks with the U.S. government to halt the imposition of new export tariffs. In a joint statement, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Economy described the tariffs as “unfair treatment.” The first task of the binational group will be to find an alternative that protects jobs and businesses in both countries.
In May, the average tariff effectively paid by Mexico was just 4.3% thanks to exemptions. However, with the new adjustments, this figure could rise to 5.0%. The most vulnerable sectors include beer, steel, aluminum, and consumer goods lacking sufficient regional content.
67.8% of Mexican exports will be subject to the new tariff regime.
Economic context: Lower production, higher pressure
The situation is worsening in the context of Mexico’s industrial slowdown.
Banamex reports a 0.9% drop in industrial production during the first five months of the year and forecasts a 1.2% contraction for all of 2025.
Cuts in public investment and infrastructure further complicate Mexico’s competitiveness amid these new trade barriers.
Regional supply chains may be forced to:
- Redesign logistics routes
- Renegotiate international contracts
- Accelerate nearshoring strategies
For supply chain professionals, the scenario demands an urgent review of certificates of origin and cost structures.
China responds to tensions: Condemns U.S. trade policy
Meanwhile, the Chinese Embassy in Mexico rejected statements by the U.S. Ambassador Ronald Johnson, who accused China of economic intimidation. China labeled the remarks as “defamation” and “ideological lies,” also criticizing U.S. immigration and tariff policies.
The conflict between major powers adds uncertainty to global trade. Mexico, caught between both tensions, is striving to protect its position in the hemisphere.
The increase in export tariffs represents a significant risk to the national economy. Mexico is already negotiating with the U.S. to avoid further damage, but supply chains and businesses must prepare for a more protectionist and uncertain scenario.
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Sources
Redacción/SinEmbargo. (2025, 15 julio). Embajada de China en México acusa a EU de iniciar campaña de difamación en su contra | SinEmbargo MX | Periodismo Digital Con Rigor. https://www.sinembargo.mx/4676441/embajada-de-china-en-mexico-acusa-a-eu-de-iniciar-campana-de-difamacion-en-su-contra/
Tlw, R. (2025, 15 julio). México enfrentará un arancel promedio de 14% en EU a partir de agosto. THE LOGISTICS WORLD | Conéctate E Inspírate. https://thelogisticsworld.com/comercio-internacional/mexico-enfrentara-un-arancel-promedio-de-14-en-eu-a-partir-de-agosto/
Welle, D. (2025, 12 julio). México: aranceles anunciados por Trump son “trato injusto”. dw.com. https://www.dw.com/es/m%C3%A9xico-aranceles-anunciados-por-trump-son-un-trato-injusto/a-73254959
