Oil in Venezuela has returned to the center of the global energy market following recent political developments in the country. While the initial price reaction was contained, the episode reopened a key question for analysts and traders: how and when this political rupture could alter supply, costs, and the regional balance of crude?
A political context that reshapes expectations
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, close to 300 billion barrels, yet its current production is far below that potential. Today, output stands at roughly 900,000 barrels per day, constrained by years of underinvestment, sanctions, and operational deterioration.
As a result, the immediate impact of the political rupture is not measured in additional barrels, but in expectations. The market does not price in a rapid recovery, but it does react to the risk of logistical disruptions or abrupt changes in operating rules.
In this context, oil in Venezuela first influences risk perception and only later—if credible signals emerge—the outlook for future supply.
Production, companies, and real constraints
Currently, Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company with active operations in Venezuela. Its output accounts for roughly one-third of national production, and its presence in the country includes approximately 3,000 workers.
Other companies such as Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips are monitoring the situation cautiously. Both exited Venezuela after the 2007 nationalization and still hold unresolved legal disputes. Meanwhile, PDVSA retains production leadership, with China as its main customer.
This structure limits access to Western financing and technology. Even with a political shift, restarting oil fields requires significant capital and timelines measured in years, not weeks.
Heavy crude and its effect on prices
One of the defining characteristics of oil in Venezuela is its high proportion of heavy crude. This type of oil is more complex and costly to produce and refine, but it is strategically important for the United States.
Major U.S. refineries are configured to process heavy crude. In 2025, this category accounted for nearly 70% of U.S. crude imports, sourced mainly from Canada and, to a lesser extent, Venezuela.
According to Jorge Hermann, director of Hermann Consultores, the absence of Venezuelan crude increased U.S. refining costs. Its potential return would not necessarily push global prices higher, but it could improve industrial efficiency and, over time, ease fuel prices.
XTB Latam estimates that a gradual normalization could drive oil prices below US$60 per barrel. However, the market already anticipates global supply surpluses in the coming years, limiting structural price increases.
Logistics, alliances, and domestic effects
Beyond production volumes, Venezuela plays a strategic role due to its geographic location. Its Caribbean coastline makes it a key logistical hub. Any disruption related to ports, insurance, or licensing directly affects shipments, tankers, and transit times.
In addition, trade relations with China, Russia, and Iran influence crude destinations and marketing conditions. For the market, these ties are a relevant factor in assessing oil flows and availability.
Domestically, these pressures are also reflected in the freight transport sector. The industry faces an aging vehicle fleet, irregular access to fuel, and high costs driven by currency distortions, affecting the distribution of essential goods.
The role of oil in Venezuela today is primarily indicative, linked to expectations and operating conditions rather than immediate changes in supply. Until a functional political framework is consolidated, its impact will remain tied to logistics and market risk assessment.
You might also be interested in: Everything you need to know about global logistics in 2026
Sources
Diaz, C. (2026, 5 enero). Fin de la era Maduro reconfigura el mapa petrolero global. MasContainer. https://mascontainer.com/fin-de-la-era-maduro-reconfigura-el-mapa-petrolero-global/
Jcanon. (2026, 5 enero). ¿Por qué lo que ocurra en Venezuela puede redefinir el riesgo petrolero en 2026? MasContainer. https://mascontainer.com/por-que-lo-que-ocurra-en-venezuela-puede-redefinir-el-riesgo-petrolero-en-2026/
Quero, M. (2025, 29 diciembre). Gremio advierte que el transporte de carga en Venezuela está en declive. La Prensa de Lara. https://laprensadelara.com/nacionales/gremio-transporte-de-carga-declive/
